Inside Movies and Pop Culture with Gregory Ellwood

Oscar Predictions: On the record with every award

Supporting Actress and Best Actor bring the most drama

<p>A giant Oscar statue will welcome guests outside the Kodak Theater as they enter to attend the 81st Academy Awards.</p>

A giant Oscar statue will welcome guests outside the Kodak Theater as they enter to attend the 81st Academy Awards.

Credit: AP Photo/Amy Sancetta

The big day is finally here.  Oscar Sunday.  Hollywood's Super Bowl.  The red carpet of all red carpets.  And in so doing, an awards season that began in earnest with the premiere of "Slumdog Millionaire" at last year's Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals is finally coming to a close. 

In all honesty, it's been a very weak year.  Looking at 2008's nominees, it's conceivable only "Slumdog" or "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" could have cracked the final five and that's a very big maybe.  Of course, years from now, people will wonder how "The Dark Knight" got overlooked, but at least the industry has another strong arguement to pressure the Academy's board of governors to increase the number of younger members into the mix (your relevancy depends on it AMPAS).  But, I digress...

While my predictions for the major categories including Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture were published during the week, below are this prognosticator's winners for every single category.  The only two that truly break from conventional wisdom are Viola Davis in Supporting Actress and Sean Penn in Best Actor.  Many have jumped on the Mickey Rourke bandwagon instead of Penn, but those aren't Academy voters. We'll circle back on Monday just to see how right or wrong I was.

And if you're looking for some commentary and analysis as you watch the telecast, check out my live blog of the pre-show and the main telecast beginning at 8 PM EST, 5 PM PST.

Enjoy.

 

BEST PICTURE
Predix: "Slumdog MIllionaire"

BEST DIRECTOR
Predix: ""Slumdog Millionaire," Danny Boyle

BEST ACTOR
Predix: Sean Penn, "Milk"

BEST ACTRESS
Predix: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR|
Predix: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predix: Viola Davis, "Doubt"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predix: "Milk," Written by Dustin Lance Black

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predix: "Slumdog Millionaire," Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Predix: "Waltz with Bashir" - Israel

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predix: "Man on Wire"

ANIMATED FILM
Predix: "WALL-E"

ART DIRECTION
Predix: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predix: "Slumdog Millionaire," Anthony Dod Mantle

COSTUME DESIGN
Predix: "The Duchess," Michael O'Connor

FILM EDITING
Predix: "Slumdog Millionaire"

MAKEUP
Predix: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

MUSIC (SCORE)
Predix: "Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predix: "Jai Ho," from "Slumdog Millionaire"

SOUND EDITING
Predix: "WALL-E"

SOUND MIXING
Predix: "The Dark Knight"

VISUAL EFFECTS
Predix: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Predix: "The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306"

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Predix: "Oktapodi"

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Predix: "Spielzeugland (Toyland)"

Who do you think is going to win this year? Share your thoughts below.

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