Inside Awards Season with Gregory Ellwood

Contender Countdown: 'Les Miserables' gets ready for its close up

Plus: 'Silver Linings Playbook' takes a slip

By Gregory Ellwood Wednesday, Nov 21, 2012 5:00 PM

Don't worry Anne. Early buzz says you won't have to pray for good reviews of "Les Miserables."

Credit: Universal Pictures

Seemingly as always, Hollywood has a lot to be thankful for. The box office has been on an upswing the past six weeks and with "The Hobbit," "Django Unchained" and "Les Miserables" arriving next month ticket sales should remain strong. But for many consultants and movie marketers this holiday weekend won't be a relaxing vacation.

The condensed awards calendar means two different studios will be debuting two major contenders for guild members on Saturday and Sunday. In truth, "Les Miserables" will first screen Friday in New York and then have a slew of screenings Saturday in Los Angeles (and the Broadway crowd getting a first look makes complete sense for this one). Sony Pictures will bring Kathryn Bigelow's "Zero Dark Thirty" to public view on Sunday. That really only leaves "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" and "Django Unchained" on the screening calendar.

Buzz on both "Les Miz" and "Zero" is very good. Look for reaction of some sort - where allowed - on In Contention, HitFix and twitter.

Here's a rundown on the current contender rankings pre-Thanksgiving weekend.

1. Argo
Quietly still on top while the other contenders bang their drums proclaiming their candidacy.

2. Lincoln
Fantastic box office last weekend which should hold up over the Thanksgiving holiday. It's working so far, but 'Argo' would have to have a disastrous phase 2 campaign to lose to it.

3. Les Miserables
We're all ears.

4. Silver Linings Playbook
Great reviews. Going up against 'Breaking Dawn,' 'Skyfall' and 'Lincoln's' in wide release probably not a good idea. That word of mouth better be as good as we all thought it would be.

5. Life of Pi
Almost great reviews, but in general a notch below the films higher on the countdown.

6. The Impossible
The stealth candidate continues its stealth campaign on both sides of the Atlantic. Oh, and did you know it's grossed almost $50 million in Spain alone?

7. Flight
Denzel will be back on the screening Q&A circuit just in time for a final push next month.

8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Could be the biggest benefactor of the Thanksgiving weekend screener pile.

9. The Master
Expected to win either LAFCA or NYFCC. If it doesn't? Oh, my.

10. Skyfall
Sony is campaigning this one as much as they can. It may be all about the messaging in the trade ads to be honest. And some LA-centric awards messaging TV spots wouldn't hurt either.

Do you think "Silver Linings Playbook" still has a chance to win best picture? Share your thoughts below.

Gregory Ellwood
Editor-in-Chief, Co-Founder

With over a decade of experience in the movie industry, Ellwood survived working for two major studios and has written for Variety, MSN and the LA Times. A co-founder of HitFix, Ellwood spends his time relaxing hitting 3’s on the basketball court and following his beloved Clippers.

Related Searches: Awards Campaign, Oscars 2013, Best Picture, Flight, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, The Impossible, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Skyfall, The Silver Linings Playbook, Anne Hathaway

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Keir Basilio

Glad to see you're one of the few predicting "The Impossible" as a contender. Most people will think this crazy, but actually think it can win.
November 21, 2012 at 7:00PM EST Reply to Comment
- OI I agree. "The Impossible" is better than all of these.
  November 21, 2012 at 9:34PM EST
- Jonnybon I think it's crazy that many aren't predicting a nomination.
  November 22, 2012 at 3:10AM EST
Brock Landers

Prediction: Russell Crowe is the best singer in Les Mis. Dude sings with my homie Alan Doyle.
November 21, 2012 at 11:00PM EST Reply to Comment
- DaneM Still don't get how Argo would be ahead of Lincoln at this point. Don't get me wrong - Argo is fantastic. But Lincoln is on a whole different plain of excellence. Saw it for the second time and loved even more than the first.
  November 22, 2012 at 3:26AM EST
- Brock Landers I don't get why some people think Lincoln is so above everything. It could easily lose 45 minutes, has unnecessary familial drama, is repetitive and is full of one-note caricatures. There are also a TON of desperate one-liners.
  
  There were merits to it, but in no way, shape or form is Lincoln on a different plain of excellence from pretty much anything currently in the race.
  November 22, 2012 at 12:01PM EST
eurocheese

A few things I find interesting:

1. There seem to be two crowds when it comes to Best Picture - those who think Lincoln will hit the Academy sweet spots, and those who insist Argo is way out in front. I always assumed Argo was the early frontrunner and would have to fight like hell for the top slot, but others seem to think it's unsinkable. In terms of traditional Academy tastes, I think Lincoln had a huge advantage just based on subject matter, and at this point it seems like the best fit for Academy catnip to me. I prefer Lincoln, so I may be biased, but no one has given me a convincing argument why the Academy would go for it over a prestige pick that's actually really good (every single one of the BP likely nominees, four so far, is at 90%+ on RT last time I checked, so strong reviews is less of an argument and more of a minimum).

2. Putting Zero Dark Thirty outside the top 10 is kind of shocking to me. It's one of the six I take seriously as a potential threat to win, though we will find out soon enough.

3. You may be right about The Impossible, but I'd be interested to hear more about what will appeal to the Academy. For instance, are there specific branches that will champion it? Disaster films have a tugh time with the Academy, and from what I've heard, Watts only has an outside shot at a nomination. It may be an incredible film, but it has a late release and I haven't heard extensive buzz.

With that said, it's fun to see a prediction list so different from mine. It makes me feel like there are a lot of possibilities.
November 23, 2012 at 3:58AM EST Reply to Comment
Cheeseman

Peculiar rollout strategy for Silver Linings Playbook. Here in Milwaukee, the movie is playing in two theatres on the "wrong side of town" for something intended to create Oscar buzz. Should have rolled out as a true "indie" (Landmark Theatres and the like) or opened wide. Will be tough to build word of mouth or momentum with this strategy, even if the film wins NYFCC or other awards.
November 25, 2012 at 10:50AM EST Reply to Comment