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Contender Countdown: Best Supporting Actor brings the surprises

Is 'Argo' a done deal for best picture?

By Gregory Ellwood Tuesday, Feb 19, 2013 5:18 AM

<p>Assuming best supporting actor is one of the first few awards handed out, will there be any surprises left afterward?</p>

Assuming best supporting actor is one of the first few awards handed out, will there be any surprises left afterward?

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Has it come to this? Has the race for best picture become - gasp - anticlimactic? Will "Argo" really defy history and become on the fourth film ever to win best picture without a director nomination?  According to all my peers and, um, myself that appears to be the case.

Overall, it's been a more chaotic season than I anticipated.  "Argo" and "Silver Linings Playbook" were the frontrunners out of Toronto until "Lincoln" created a firestorm of buzz at the end of October and early November. Fast forward a few weeks and "Les Miserables" was mistakenly seen as a real frontrunner for about 48 hours before "Thirty" screened.  Unfortunately, politics crashed the party and "Thirty" has been sadly behind the eight-ball ever since.  "Life of Pi," on the other hand, has been the season's slow burner.  A true player that the media is guilty of not taking seriously enough as a best picture contender.  Of course, who knows what would have happened if Tarantino finished "Django Unchained" three or four weeks early.  Or, perhaps we've all been fooled and "Lincoln," "Playbook" or "Pi" will surprise on Sunday night.  

Nah.

Instead, the category fireworks have been left for the best director (Ang Lee vs. Steven Spielberg vs. David O. Russell), best actress (Jennifer Lawrence vs. Emmanuelle Riva) and, most intriguingly, best supporting actor races.  The last time an acting category was this up in the air was probably back in 2003 when Chris Cooper won the same category over Paul Newman, Ed Harris and Christopher Walken.  This time around we have cranky ol' Tommy Lee Jones (who did no favors for himself at the Golden Globes and by missing the SAG Awards), Robert De Niro (easily deserving of the three-winner club) and Christoph Waltz (a movie, er, scene stealer in any language).  Former Oscar winners Alan Arkin and Philip Seymour Hoffman are arguably more deserving than the frontrunners. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones wins only to drop the Oscar on stage and walk off without an acceptance speech.  Dare to dream.

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With ballots due today, this is the final Contender Countdown for this awards season.  As a bonus, I've included my current picks for all the categories although my final picks won't be until Thursday night.  In the meantime, some picks to get you excited for your Oscar office pool...

Feb. 19, 2013

Best Picture
1. "Argo"
2. "Lincoln"
3. "Life of Pi"
4. "Silver Linings Playbook"
5. "Zero Dark Thirty"
6. "Les Miserables"
7. "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
8. "Django Unchained"
9. "Amour"

Best Director
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"

Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Chris Terrio, "Argo"

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"

Best Cinematography
Claudio Miranda, "Life of Pi"

Best Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran, "Anna Karenina"

Best Film Editing
William Goldberg, "Argo"

Best Makeup
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

Best Music (Original Score)
Mychael Danna, "Life o Pi"

Best Music (Original Song)
Adele, Paul Epworth, "Skyfall" from "Skyfall"

Best Production Design
David Gropman, Anna Pinnock"Life of Pi"

Best Sound Mixing
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes, "Les Miserables"

Best Sound Editing
Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, "Skyfall"

Best Visual Effects
"Life of Pi"

Best Foreign Language Film
Michael Haneke, "Amour"

Best Animated Feature Film
"Wreck-It-Ralph"

Best Documentary Feature
"Searching for Sugar Man"

Best Documentary Short
"Mondays at Racine"

Best Short Film (Animated)
"Paperman"

Best Short Film (Live Action)
"Buzkashi Boys"

Who do you think is gonna win it all this year? Share your thoughts below.

Greg-ellwood-sm
Gregory Ellwood
Editor-in-Chief, Co-Founder
With over a decade of experience in the movie industry, Ellwood survived working for two major studios and has written for Variety, MSN and the LA Times. A co-founder of HitFix, Ellwood spends his time relaxing hitting 3’s on the basketball court and following his beloved Clippers.
Related Searches: Awards Campaign, Contender Countdown, Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Oscar 2013, Academy Awards
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  • Default-avatar

    Zizo

    I think you mixed up the sound categories. Les Miserables isn't nominated in sound editing, only in mixing.

    February 19, 2013 at 8:29AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      yep

      February 19, 2013 at 8:36AM EST

    • Crap. What's worse is I've done two Q&A's with the Skyfall sound nominees. Should have that locked down!

      February 19, 2013 at 3:45PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    American Jedi

    God, I don't understand the Argo love. It was good, but nothing special in my opinion. I thought Django, Zero, and Silver Linings were way better, and Lincoln and Les Mis were also better. It seems like another one of those years where they are tenuously conspiring to choose a likable but unremarkable movie to give the prize to, to make the statement that we reward safety around here, not greatness. it's more important to have an affable director who people like than it is to have a director who actually crafted a great film.

    February 19, 2013 at 8:57AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Freakazoid_talkback_profile

      mmcb105 Your argument might hold water if Affleck was a directing nominee.

      February 19, 2013 at 10:58AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      American Jedi I know that Affleck isn't nominated. Everybody knows that. But a lot of what has been written about Argo's surge postulates that the "snub" of Affleck has actually been a huge boost to Argo's best picture chances. People like Affleck and feel like he was unfairly denied a director's nom, and they are purportedly compensating for that by supporting Argo for the big prize. Are you telling me you haven't read that anywhere? That has been reported pervasively, including on this site.

      February 19, 2013 at 11:12AM EST
    • Freakazoid_talkback_profile

      mmcb105 The problem with your logic is two-fold.

      Firstly, you are assuming that there are no people who believe Argo is a great film, only people who believe it deserves to win. That’s a flawed argument. Many reviews for Argo have said it was great. In your opinion, Argo is a bad choice, but in someone else’s opinion it is a great movie that deserves to win.

      Secondly, what I was referring to in my first post was that obviously many people at the academy agreed with you about Argo on some level since Affleck wasn't nominated. So saying that they are going to go with Argo because it is the “safe” or obvious choice simply because they like the director doesn’t really work. If they always went with the “safe” choice or if wins were only based on how much a particular person is liked then he would have been nominated.

      Just to be clear, I’m not saying that there is no connection between Affleck’s snub and Argo’s recent rash of wins. Just that there are many factors in the recent rash of wins that don’t all necessarily point to people thinking Argo is the “safe” choice.

      Try to be a little less condescending next time.

      February 19, 2013 at 11:42AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      American Jedi First of all, I'm not assuming that "there are no people who believe Argo is a great film." Where did I say that? I do think that there is a major "bandwagon" phenomenon going on here, which happens every year. But obviously in the full spectrum of voters there are some who genuinely think the movie is the best picture. Respond to my arguments as I've actually uttered them; don't set up straw man arguments that I didn't make (but which are easier for you to deal with).

      Second, director NOMINEES are voted on only by members of the director's branch, while the best picture AWARD is voted on by e entire academy. So, the smaller group of peers in the director's branch were obviously not as taken with Argo, but members of the Academy membership as a whole are rebelling against the directors' vote by throwing support to Argo in the best picture race. Or so the reporting says. In any event, your comment that "If they always went with the safe choice or if wins were only based on how much a particular person is liked then he would have been nominated," is erroneous because the nominators and the award voters for this award are to the same populations. The award voting body is much larger.

      Third, regarding my alleged condescension, I refer you to your own, terse reply to my initial comment.

      February 19, 2013 at 9:51PM EST
    • Freakazoid_talkback_profile

      mmcb105 You said: "It seems like another one of those years where they are tenuously conspiring to choose a likable but unremarkable movie to give the prize to, to make the statement that we reward safety around here, not greatness."
      This implies that people are willingly picking a lesser movie because they like the director, which in turn suggests that most people don't think Argo deserves the win. I was saying this assertion is wrong. Using the term “great film” instead of “best picture” may have been a little inaccurate, but that doesn’t exactly make it a straw-man argument, just poorly worded. The point I was making, which you got anyway mind you, is that there are many people that think it actually deserves to win.
      I agree that the bandwagon, as you called it, is a real phenomenon, but I would bet it is because many people believe that Affleck deserves recognition for Argo and not because he is affable and likeable. If that were the case, then Apollo 13 would’ve won best picture way back when because you can’t get much more affable and likeable than Ron Howard.
      You make a pretty good point in your second bit. I didn’t realize only directors voted on nominees, I assumed it was the whole academy like the final award. However, it looks like the Directors jumped back on that bandwagon since Affleck won the DGA award too.
      Whether you believe it or not, I wasn’t trying to be condescending in my original short response. I was simply trying to point out that you were being too cynical about the process since obviously some in the academy agreed with you. Re-reading it I admit it comes off a little dick-ish, so I’m willing to cop to that.

      February 19, 2013 at 10:59PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    John Anderson

    Best Picture
    1. "Argo"
    2. "Life of Pi"
    3. "Lincoln"
    4. "Django Unchained"
    5. "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Director
    Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"

    Best Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"

    Best Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

    Best Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"

    Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    "Argo"

    Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
    Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"

    Best Cinematography
    Claudio Miranda, "Life of Pi"

    Best Costume Design
    "Anna Karenina"

    Best Film Editing
    "Argo"

    Best Makeup
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

    Best Music (Original Score)
    Mychael Danna, "Life o Pi"

    Best Music (Original Song)
    Adele, Paul Epworth, "Skyfall" from "Skyfall"

    Best Production Design
    "Le Miserables"

    Best Sound Editing
    "Skyfall"

    Best Sound Mixing
    "Life of Pi"

    Best Visual Effects
    "Life of Pi"

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Michael Haneke, "Amour"

    Best Animated Feature Film
    "Wreck-It-Ralph

    February 19, 2013 at 9:09AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    The Dude

    Like I've said in another thread, I see no reason at all to predict De Niro. And frankly, predict an actor that:

    a) Didn't get a BAFTA nom for a movie that got a few nominations and even won an important one;

    b) Didn't get a GG nom, with the GG being notoriously star-struck and voting in everything that Harvey does;

    c) Didn't win the SAG despite the fact that he never won there. Really, this was supposed to be a piece of cake, specially considering Waltz wasn't in the running;

    d) Already has two Oscars;

    e) It's in a year in which another actor is getting a third Oscar and possibly a director as well;

    f) For a movie that has better chances elsewhere.

    It reminds me of the many pundits treating Viola Davis as a near-lock and then becoming completely shocked when Streep won, despite the fact she had everything else for her- the same emotional argument going against the plain logic of the situation. When was the last time someone that didn't get a BAFTA and GG nomination and lost the SAG won over the winners of those?

    And of course, Davis actually WON the SAG at least, and was nominated for everything else...

    Also, like it was said, you're confusing the sound categories.

    February 19, 2013 at 9:45AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      hither Greg made a mistake, BURN HIM!!!!

      February 19, 2013 at 10:09AM EST
    • Freakazoid_talkback_profile

      mmcb105 No reason other than he was fantastic in the film.

      February 19, 2013 at 10:59AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Edwin I'm also kind of skeptical that so many people seem to be predicting De Niro all of a sudden when he hasn't won anything, but I do think he's in the mix for two reasons:

      a) No clear frontrunner in this category, meaning votes can potentially be all over the place.

      b) Possible wave of support for "Silver Linings Playbook." This might actually be the only place to award it if Emmanuelle Riva actually ends up winning.

      February 19, 2013 at 5:54PM EST
  • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

    DylanS

    Best Picture-
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Director-
    Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"

    Best Actor-
    Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"

    Best Actress-
    Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"

    Best Supporting Actor-
    Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

    Best Supporting Actress-
    Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

    Best Adapted Screenplay-
    Argo

    Best Original Screenplay-
    Django Unchained

    Best Editing-
    Argo

    Best Cinematography-
    Life of Pi

    Best Production Design-
    Life of Pi

    Best Costume Design-
    Anna Karenina

    Best Visual Effects-
    Life of Pi

    Best Score-
    Lincoln

    Best Sound Editing-
    Skyfall

    Best Sound Mixing-
    Les Miserables

    Best Original Song-
    Skyfall

    Best Makeup-
    Hitchcock

    February 19, 2013 at 11:25AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    David D.

    Regarding the Documentary Feature category: I know that everyone is predicting "Sugar Man" for the win, and I know that many people like the film but think it's comparatively lightweight in the category. (I liked it too, but I have problems with the time structure of the movie, in that the "searching for" happened 15 YEARS AGO, and the movie seems to suggest that the real discovery is the director's locating Rodriguez again -- to me, what's more interesting is why his resurgence in South Africa didn't take, and why he disappeared AGAIN for 15 years.)

    Here's my question: I know that the entire Academy can now vote for Doc Feature, which pretty much cements that a crowd-pleaser will win over a difficult one, but I thought that one of the previous rules was that documentary voters had to see all five nominees, and prove it, in order to vote at all. Has that rule now been tossed?

    February 19, 2013 at 11:58AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    CaptainCanada

    Best Picture: Argo
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln" (could also be Lee, but I'll gamble on them deciding to reward Spielberg in some way)
    Best Actor: DDL
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (despite Riva's late win at BAFTA, I think "Silver Linings" has too much going for it not to win this)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best Original Screenplay: "Django Unchained"
    Best Adapted Screenplay: "Argo"
    Best Editing: "Argo"
    Best Visual Effects: "Life of Pi"
    Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi"
    Best Makeup: "Les Miserables"
    Best Production Design: "Anna Karenina"
    Best Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables"
    Best Sound Editing: "Life of Pi"
    Best Original Score: "Life of Pi"
    Best Original Song: "Skyfall"
    Best Foreign Film: "Amour"
    Best Animated Film: "Wreck-It Ralph"

    February 19, 2013 at 12:04PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Foregone Conclusion

    The pundits can say Argo is a foregone conclusion and it probably will win, but there will at least be a lingering doubt before the name is announced.
    When Meryl Streep goes up there to present Best Actor, there's no suspense. It'll be Daniel Day-Lewis. But when whichever Hollywood legend goes up to present Best Picture, there's going to be the thought of, "Will it be Argo or will it be (whichever movie won for Director)?" Unless Matt Damon is presenting Best Picture. That'll be a giveaway.
    And even if it is Argo, big win for the producers. They get to have Affleck and Clooney close out the show and you know Affleck will get a standing O to make up for missing Best Director. Granted, Clooney probably won't say a word and it'll mostly just be Grant Heslov talking, but still. Finally some big names at the end instead of random producers.

    February 19, 2013 at 12:33PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Paul Outlaw

    Greg, I think your picks today are 75-95% on the money. (If 95%, then I must add, "unfortunately.")

    February 19, 2013 at 12:58PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Adam K

    The Academy has not been that kind to Quentin Tarantino. He's only ever gotten nominated for Pulp Fiction, Inglourious Basterds, and now Django. No nods for Reservoir Dogs, Kill Bills, Jackie Brown, or True Romance. His only Oscar comes from writing Pulp Fiction but thats one of the greatest films ever made so you can't deny him at least ONE Oscar (plus he wasnt up against Forrest Gump).

    Anyways, he LOST for Inglourious Basterds which seemed like a slam dunk, was a better film, and had more buzz around it than Django does and it still lost to Mark Boal.

    I just don't see the Academy giving Tarantino enough to respect to give him another Oscar

    February 19, 2013 at 1:41PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      CaptainCanada Tarantino never seemed like a "slam dunk" for "Inglourious Basterds". That category was pretty much always regarded as a close contest, and a bellwether for the strength of "The Hurt Locker".

      February 19, 2013 at 3:02PM EST

    • Enough respect? They gave Django a Best Picture nomination over Moonrise Kingdom and Skyfall!

      February 19, 2013 at 3:48PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Edwin Actually, if Tarantino loses, I think it will be because of a groundswell of support for "Amour" rather than a lack of respect for Tarantino.

      February 19, 2013 at 5:52PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Al

    Just curious, will Hitfix, or in-contention, be having an oscar pool this year?

    February 19, 2013 at 3:51PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Tyler

    Does Roger Deakins have ANY chance of getting this Oscar?! Or is Life of Pi pretty much a lock? The guy's arguably the most accomplished cinematographer of his generation and he STILL doesn't have an Oscar!

    February 19, 2013 at 6:01PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Patryk

    I think there is a mistake in the CONTENDERS for Best Supporting Actor. It states that Jones won the Globe and SAG, and that Waltz won BAFTA. I think Waltz won the Globe and BAFTA.

    February 19, 2013 at 6:44PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      filmnoirguy You are correct, sir.

      February 19, 2013 at 8:32PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Roy Munson

    Waltz totally wasn't a supporting character but whatever

    February 19, 2013 at 11:44PM EST Reply to Comment

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