Contender Countdown: 'Argo' vs. 'Lincoln' to the bitter end?
Pundits are heading Ben Affleck's way, but are Academy voters?
Ben Affleck as Tony Mendez in "Argo."
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Well the Oscar pundits have spoken again and - surprise - it appears a number of our peers are jumping on the "Argo" bandwagon.
The latest Gurus of Gold roundup finds nine first place votes for "Argo" and just two for "Lincoln." Both Movie City News' David Poland and Awards Daily's Sasha Stone aren't bowing to the media peer pressure (for the moment at least). It's also worth noting that three Gurus weren't counted this week although Anne Thompson confirms she voted "Argo" even if her votes didn't make the publishing deadline (boo). Needless to say, the momentum has swung back toward Ben Affleck's guild favorite even if it is without a pesky best directing nomination.
Of course, nothing's changed, really. History is still not on "Argo's" side. Only three films have ever won best picture without a directing nomination over the previous 84 Academy Awards. For those playing at home, that means an "Argo" like win hasn't happened 81 times. Clearly, no one in Vegas or politics would take those odds. Instead, "Lincoln," with the most nominations (12), at least one nomination from each branch (except Visual Effects) and living legend Steven Spielberg behind it would "seem" to be the safer bet. Most recently, "Apollo 13," which wasn't awarded a best director nod either, demonstrated you can duplicate "Argo's" DGA, PGA and SAG ensemble wins and still lose the big prize (enter "Braveheart"). The pro-"Argo" contingent and even those with a horse in the race not working for Disney or DreamWorks will tell you "Lincoln" isn't beloved like "Braveheart" was and it's respected like "Hugo," "Babel" and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (all films with best director nominations by the way). "Argo," on the other hand, is loved by the Academy membership and the industry and that should pull it through. Or will it?
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Feb. 7, 2013
1. Argo
Everyone wants to hop on the bandwagon. Where were you guys in December?
2. Lincoln
Is history really on its side?
3. Life of Pi
Could end the night with four Oscars. Will best director be one of them?
4. Silver Linings Playbook
Full court press to land Robert De Niro his third Academy Award. Can't wait to see the reaction on Tommy Lee Jones' face if that happens.
5. Zero Dark Thirty
Has Washington, D.C. politics ever affected a best picture campaign as much as it has for "Zero Dark Thirty"? Hastag sad.
6. Les Miserables
Having trouble understanding why Anne Hathaway has become the center of the media's snarky wit over the past few weeks. Recent slam dunk winners such as Jennifer Hudson, Monique, Christopher Plummer or Christian Bale never had to put up with this.
7. Django Unchained
Weinstein and Sony Pictures wouldn't mind Tarantino landing another best original screenplay Oscar, but are secretly wondering if they can hit $400 million worldwide.
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Clearly the winner of the "We're just so happy to be recognized" award this season.
9. Amour
Emmanuelle Riva and Michael Haneke have excellent chances to win in the best actress and best original screenplay categories, but picture? The longest shot of all.
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February 7, 2013 at 7:13PM EST Reply to CommentI liked Argo, but Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are head and shoulders above it.
HoustonRufus
February 7, 2013 at 7:52PM EST Reply to CommentArgo by the length of a horse. My horse is Lincoln, but I know a winner when I see one.
Danny
February 7, 2013 at 11:36PM EST Reply to CommentI too am sick and tired of all the Hathaway hating out there. A strong reek of Junior High School Mean Kids about all that.
R.W.
February 8, 2013 at 12:32PM EST Reply to CommentCould because people like Bale, Plummer, etc. didn't consistently make such overwritten, faux-shocked, try-hard speeches. Monique did what Hathaway should do, let the work speak for itself. I don't care about your haircut, your marriage, etc etc. I admired the performance and even I'm finding myself rooting for Sally Field..
Hey Boo
February 8, 2013 at 1:43PM EST Reply to CommentIf history is not on Argo's side, then why is everyone absolutely convinced that Daniel Day Lewis cannot lose? Because history is not on his side either. In 84 years only leading four actors have been awarded that third Oscar (and only one, Ms. Hepburn has more than two in the lead catagory) and it took them decades and multiple nominations to do it. For Daniel to do it he's going to have to be the youngest to get there at just 55, the fastest to get there in just 23 years (since his first nomination) and this is the biggest hurdle in my opinion, with just five nominations. Three Best Actor Oscars (which the Academy somehow couldn't do for Tracy or Brando or Davis) in just five nominations? I don't care what pundits and pre-award shows say. They don't determine the Oscars. Anything is possible but if past is prologue, look for DiNiro to be crowned the three time winner (after a 40 year career), not Day Lewis. And if DiNiro does win it, that hurts Day Lewis's chances even more because what are the odds of annointing two three time winners in just one night when it's taken the Academy over eight decades to honor just five actors with such an honor? And don't get me wrong. I think Daniel Day Lewis is the best actor in the world and you could give him 12 Oscars and it wouldn't be enough. But all of the odds are against him here. Keep your eye on Hugh Jackman. It was a tremendous performance, he's regarded as one the most talented people in the business and most importantly, he's beloved by his peers. Just an opinion. Sorry for going on. I tend to be on the "chatty" side.