Box Office: 'The Hunger Games' looks for a mammoth 'Harry Potter' level opening
Forget 'Twilight' Katniss is going after everyone's favorite sorcerer
Liam Hemsworth, Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson at a publicity event for "The Hunger Games" in Century City, CA on Sat, March 3rd.
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Get ready to hear a lot more about "The Hunger Games" than you ever expected. The adaptation of Suzanne Collins 2008 novel has been the center of tremendous hype ever since it was labeled the "next" "Twilight" franchise after Lionsgate acquired the big screen rights in 2009. However, with only 2.9 million copies in print the fan base isn't anywhere near the level Stephenie Meyer's franchise (116 million copies in print as of Oct. 2010). Well, much to even Lionsgate's surprise it appears lightning has struck twice and "Hunger Games" is about to ravage your local movie theater.
Opening in less than two weeks, pre-release polling has the Gary Ross film drawing more movie audience interest than the first "Twilight" which debuted to $69.6 million in 2008. In fact, while the studio is sticking by a $75 million projection for now, rivals say the data actually points to anywhere from a $130-150 million debut. That estimate puts the franchise in the gaudy range of "New Moon" ($142 million) and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1's" ($125 million) debuts. That figure would also break "Alice in Wonderland's" all-time March opening gross of $116 million which had the benefit of higher 3D ticket prices. "Hunger Games" will only be released in IMAX and conventional 2D theaters.
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The rosy outlook is also affecting the films debuting the weekend after "Hunger Games"; "Wrath of the Titans" and "Mirror, Mirror." Both films appeal to different demographics, but are each polling around a $35 million opening. And, most likely, they'll be fighting for a distant second place to another huge "Hunger Games" gross in its second week. This has to be disconcerting for Warner Bros. after "Clash of the Titans" soared to $61 million two years ago, but no one in Hollywood thought "Games" could realistically come close to a $100 million debut so the date appeared "safe." Now? We'll have to see how far Sam Worthington can take a "Wrath" that's intended to be far superior than its predecessor.
If tracking stays on target, "Games" is also set to join "The Vow," "Safe House" and "The Lorax" as the fourth film to easily cross the $100 million mark in just the first tree months of 2012. What's more remarkable is that only one of those films is benefiting from those previously mentioned inflated 3D ticket prices ("Lorax").
"The Hunger Games" stars Jennifer Lawrence, Liam Hemsworth, Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Banks, Donald Sutherland and Woody Harrelson among others. It opens nationwide on Friday, March 23..
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupLiz
March 12, 2012 at 10:34PM EST Reply to CommentThe main actress' name is Jennifer Lawrence, not Jessica Lawrence...
Liz
March 12, 2012 at 10:35PM EST Reply to CommentAlso Liam Neeson is definitely not in this film.
Ashley
March 12, 2012 at 10:35PM EST Reply to CommentActually The Hunger Games has had 23.9 million copies sold and 7 million after the trailer premiered in November. Get your facts straight.
March 12, 2012 at 10:40PM ESTLunatic96 Well if that's what you're referring to, you don't make it very clear by keeping the sentence in present tense. You might want to add a qualifier such as "at the time" or maybe just use the past tense. It certainly reads like the sentence was referring to the present.
March 13, 2012 at 1:58AM ESTJake Yeah it's written very poorly if that's what you meant... Also how can you compare Hunger Games books old before the rights were bought against Twilight books sold after first film came out...
March 13, 2012 at 6:46AM ESTIn fact the Hunger Games has sold more books than Twilight did before the movie was released.
Jon No where near Harry Potter's 500 million books sold.
March 13, 2012 at 11:30PM ESTChantelle
March 12, 2012 at 10:35PM EST Reply to CommentIt's Jennifer* Lawrence and Liam Hemsworth*.....
Mena
March 12, 2012 at 11:34PM EST Reply to CommentWell, of course it's gonna be huge! The books are great. The thing is that people don't like reading anymore (not as they used to). But I bet the sales of the books are gonna increase insanely after the first film is released.
Ben
March 12, 2012 at 11:44PM EST Reply to CommentOk, someone is obviously a Twilight fan. Your book sales for each series are seriously skewed. Twilight may have had 116 mill. copies as of Oct. 2010, but that was FIVE years after it was published. However, your Hunger Games data(2.9 mill. copies) was from up until the rights were sold which was, according to your 2009 date, about ONE year after it was published. This doesn't even consider that the Twilight data includes TWO years after the first movie was released, while the Hunger Games hasn't even been released yet.
Bill Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows sold around 12 million copies within its first 24 hours, beat that!
March 13, 2012 at 11:32PM ESTBen Of course, it's not like Harry Potter already had a fanbase built for the space of time that it took to make 6 previous books . . . Oh wait, it did. I didn't even say anything about Harry Potter in my previous post. I have nothing against Harry Potter or Twilight, I just hate when data is so skewed. I didn't want anyone viewing this article to take that data as an accurate comparison. Harry Potter and Twilight fans shouldn't be mad about The Hunger Games, it's continuing the books-to-movies legacy in Hollywood.
March 14, 2012 at 5:36PM ESTBen @Bill Your right, it's not like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows had a fan base established over the span of 6 previous books . . .Oh wait, it did. Anyway, I don't have a problem with Harry Potter(I love Harry Potter) or Twilight. I just didn't like how skewed the data was for comparing The Hunger Games's sales to Twilight's. I don't see why fans of Twilight and Harry Potter are mad about The Hunger Games. The Hunger Games is continuing the books-to-movies legacy in Hollywood. We should all be happy.
March 14, 2012 at 6:21PM ESTSally Dubats
March 13, 2012 at 12:14AM EST Reply to Comment"The Hunger Games" looks like it will be a fascinating movie. The book was so violent, I don't know how they're keeping it from an "R" rating.
Rach I brought this up as a comment on IMDB and got blasted within minutes of voicing my thoughts. I love The Hunger Games - but my curiosity on the matter hasn't been satiated, no matter how much people thinking I'm being negative.
March 13, 2012 at 1:00AM ESTBryce Money, that's why.
March 13, 2012 at 2:47AM ESTCarter I see this mentioned a lot, but I don't see it being that big of a deal. Look at The Dark Knight, that movie is PG-13, you have ppl shot, hit by a vehicle, poisoned, attacked by dogs, dying in explosions, car wrecks, a helicopter crash, stabbed, burned, and so on. Even in something like Iron Man, within the first 20 or 30 minutes you have Tony Stark walking around burning ppl with flamethrowers.
March 13, 2012 at 12:24PM ESTThe Hunger Games book has some violent scenes, but it isn't some kind of hard core gorefest. They'll have to be a little careful in how they shoot some things, for instance, I'm guessing we'll get some cutaways after someone meets a grizzly end, and they'll dry to keep blood shown to a minimum, but that's about it.
anon
March 13, 2012 at 1:08AM EST Reply to CommentHa. "Lightening" has struck twice, not "lightning."
chase Actually, it's lightning.
March 13, 2012 at 8:04AM ESTZek
March 13, 2012 at 1:58AM EST Reply to Commentwhat a piece of crap article, so many mistakes!!! gosh...although the content is interesting.
Bryce
March 13, 2012 at 2:46AM EST Reply to CommentJust looking at these comments, this article was poorly written and/or researched. You also can't seem to spell "lightning" right, next time get your articles proofread by someone with at least a 9th grade reading level.
db
March 13, 2012 at 3:32AM EST Reply to CommentIf this guy gets paid write these articles, he should be fired. In addition to that manipulative line about books sales, there is a typo in the last segment..."The last tree films..." Tree instead of three. Unless he is trying make a 'Lorax' joke...
Snoopy LOL Only one other person noticed that! "Tree" instead of "Three". This is, by far, the WORST written article I've seen in a while.
March 13, 2012 at 11:08AM ESTgarrett olinde
March 13, 2012 at 7:06AM EST Reply to CommentHey, update your # of books in print. As of a month ago the 3 Hunger Games books had 23.5 million copies in print in the USA alone. You used the 2.9 figure last year.
kris
March 13, 2012 at 7:10AM EST Reply to CommentWhy would the studio low ball the expectations to only 75 million? I don't get the logic are they being cautious or are.they.seeing data that supports only a 75 million debut?
Prettok You're right. Lionsgate should be calling every other studio and boasting about Hunger games' impeding 150million $ debut!
March 13, 2012 at 9:13AM ESTMarc
March 13, 2012 at 7:57AM EST Reply to CommentThe only concern I have about the hunger games is the possibility that they might not make all the books into films, which will be a huge letdown! If like me you read the books and loved them and now are looking forward to the film which looks amazing, it will be such a let down if they cancel catching fire because of poor sales for the 1st installment (hopefully this won't happen) because march being well known for poor sales, I just hope lionsgate have the faith and the foresight to just run with this to completion!
James $75 million projections (possibly 130mil) for the first weekend on a $90 million budget? Yeah, you have nothing to worry about. Catching Fire is getting rushed into production within the next month.
March 13, 2012 at 9:15AM ESTanon
March 13, 2012 at 8:27AM EST Reply to Commentso why did the premiere not even trend worldwide on twitter? hmmm maybe the series is not that hot overseas
Jason
March 13, 2012 at 10:35AM EST Reply to CommentWHY COMPARE IT TO TWILIGHT?! THEY ARE NOTHING ALIKE!
Compare it to Battle Royale or something, they are alike.
And why are they trying to compete with Harry Potter?
I love The Hunger Games but still... Harry Potter = 1 successful generation touching millions' of lives.
J. Court
March 13, 2012 at 11:31AM EST Reply to CommentDream on.
J. Court
March 13, 2012 at 11:33AM EST Reply to CommentLots of luck with that, or dream on, whichever.
March 13, 2012 at 11:51AM EST Reply to CommentFirst "tree"months of 2012?
zan
March 14, 2012 at 7:17PM EST Reply to CommentPlease do not compare Twilight with the Hunger Games, it is insulting to the fans of the series. It makes it seem as if the books are about love triangles, which is false. If you actually did your research you would have discovered most fans hate the comparisons because it promotes teams, which is dumb. The books are a social and political commentary on modern society, not a cheap love novel.